The tragic event we experienced recently The Izmir Earthquake After that, all eyes will be on Istanbul earthquake was translated. Many earthquake We followed the TV shows and print media featuring our scientist professors, and I also looked into the possibility of Istanbul Logistics of the earthquake I wanted to take a closer look at this for you. 

A possible in Istanbul earthquake Are we ready? Logistics Is our infrastructure adequate? How much damage are we facing? Is our priority action plan ready? 

Boğaziçi University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering by, Istanbul Province, Possible Earthquake The Project to Update Loss Estimates was prepared, and analyses of possible scenarios were conducted. The report; earthquake logistics, disaster logistics It serves as a guide for us on topics such as “What is it?” and “How should it be planned?”.

According to the report, for the province of Istanbul earthquake Various scenarios have been prepared based on the assumption that the earthquake will have a magnitude of 7.5. Let’s take a look together disaster logistics What is it? Let's take a closer look.

Disaster logistics What is it?

In order to meet the needs of living and non-living entities affected by the situation, goods, items, and related information are transported from the point of initial production to the point of final consumption efficient and cost-effective the flow, in a way, storage, planning, implementation, and control is explained as (Atalay and Önsüz, 2015).

In the report that was prepared, the report outlines what might be damaged in the worst-case scenario, based on estimates derived using various methods. We need to review the data presented and, in light of this data, before the earthquake It is very important for us to address our weaknesses. When we examined the situation analysis, the first step was to assess the distribution of damage across all infrastructure systems.

• It has been noted that repairs may be needed at 335 points along the IGDAŞ pipeline network, and in this context, it is possible that natural gas service boxes located in approximately 86,500 buildings with moderate to severe damage may be taken out of service.
• As for the İSKİ water system, the scenario is during the earthquake It has been estimated that repairs may be needed at 463 locations, and at 1,045 locations in the wastewater network.
• Scenario for the 95% transmission lines of the Istanbul power grid earthquake It is expected to emerge from this unscathed or with only minor damage. Moderate damage is expected to 5% of the grid. As for substations, it is estimated that 69% will remain undamaged or sustain only minor damage, while up to 31% of transformers will sustain moderate damage or worse.

For this reason, it is crucial to ensure coordination in advance so that infrastructure needs can be managed most effectively during a crisis. Identifying response teams, as well as the teams’ and technical requirements’ to the safe zone Its positioning also serves to reach the high-risk area route planning It must be done.

When looking at the damage rates of buildings, the magnitude 7.5 scenario during the earthquake It is estimated that an average of 57% of buildings in Istanbul will not sustain damage, while an average of 26% will sustain minor damage, 13% will sustain moderate damage, 3% will sustain severe damage, and 1% will sustain very severe damage. It is known that the total number of buildings in Istanbul, as reported in the latest 2017 Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (İBB)* data, was 1,528,782; however, it was stated that the total number of buildings analyzed in the report published in 2019 was 1,166,330. Based on the calculations, it is estimated that a scenario earthquake in Istanbul could result in 25 million metric tons of debris (in logistics terms, approximately 1,250,000 dump trucks). On the other hand, it is known that there are 13,000** dump trucks registered in the system in Istanbul. This situation again indicates that for the removal of debris from damaged buildings, dump trucks It makes us wonder, “Is that enough?”.

The most tragic aspect of the scenario—one whose emotional toll is incalculable—is the estimates of our loss of life and the number of injuries… It has been estimated that there could be an average of approximately 14,150 fatalities in Istanbul. 

The earthquake's If it occurs during the day, the expected death toll is around 12,400. At night during the earthquake approximately 8,100, during the day during the earthquake It is expected that 7,450 people will be seriously injured. In addition, estimates of the number of injured people who will require hospital treatment are expected overnight earthquake 39,650 for, daytime earthquake is 37,500.  From the earthquake There must be a sufficient number of healthcare facilities available to provide immediate care to those affected. This requires a sufficient number of medical equipment and staff It also raises the question: "Is it there?". 

Another key issue is the need for shelter. It is estimated that there will be an urgent need for shelter for approximately 640,000 households. Assuming an average of three people per household, it is expected that approximately 2,000,000 people will be in urgent need of shelter. Every person’s needs for hygiene, food, clothing, heating, etc., our inventory that can meet your needs It must be present. 

According to the road closure analysis, particularly on the historic peninsula, where there are single- and two-lane roads, Fatih in the districts neighboring the district, Beyoğlu, Şişli, Alibeyköy, Zeytinburnu, Bayrampaşa, Esenler In districts such as these, it is anticipated that single- and dual-lane roads may be closed at certain locations—in some cases at up to 30 points per grid cell—due to building damage. Proper route planning That is where the importance of doing so comes into play.

Our logistics planning First and foremost, it is important to have the capability to manage and measure all risks. The use of analytical tools that will streamline processes to the greatest extent possible during a crisis will also facilitate measurability. Logistics of the Earthquake Under management, it must have a dynamic, scalable, and ‘robust’ (aiming to minimize potential damage rather than simply optimizing performance) structure, achieved through the effective use of analytical tools. Proper planning regarding storage, packaging, insurance, customs clearance, warehousing, and demand management is essential, as is ensuring that the plan is ready for implementation. Furthermore, considering the potential infrastructure issues highlighted in the report, it is necessary to establish alternative communication and transportation systems. As noted regarding the risk of road closures, it is clear that route planning must be conducted, and the plan must be designed to incorporate other modes of transportation.

When considering planning and coordination systems around the world, I believe it is necessary to examine the U.S. National Incident Management System (NIMS). Some incidents, such as earthquakes, can transcend the boundaries of administrative and organizational structures. For this reason, it may be necessary for multiple organizations to establish effective and efficient coordination within their structure.

Because extraordinary events can cause organizations to lose or suspend their operations. To prevent this, a flexible system has been developed that allows different organizations and institutions to integrate and communicate using a common language. The system consists of the following components: preparedness, communications and information management, resource management, command and control, and day-to-day operations. I believe we will always see the benefits of establishing such systems during emergencies.

For example, we can discuss Japan’s earthquake management. First, to enhance the ability to respond quickly, they developed automated mechanisms and integrated all smartphones in Japan into the earthquake and tsunami early warning system. Mobile phones sound a loud alarm 5–10 seconds—or up to 15 seconds, depending on location—before earthquake waves hit people in that area. The early warning system allows people to reach safe locations and ensure their own rescue before the earthquake waves strike them. This will provide a significant advantage in terms of time management during planning.

We hope that Turkey We will not experience such major earthquakes or disasters. However, should they occur, we will weather the crisis with minimal damage thanks to our sturdy structures and robust logistical plans.

Cemil Çınar

Senior Supply Chain Consultant

Founder / CEO of Innova Education

innovaegitim.com/

Source:

(*) “https://haber.sol.org.tr/toplum/istanbuldaki-bina-sayisi-aciklandi-222240” (Accessed November 8, 2020)

(**) “https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/son-dakika-hafriyat-kamyonlari-hiz-siniri-tanimiyor” (Accessed November 8, 2020)